Early Voting Data Favors a Trump Victory in Florida
Republicans have closed Democrats’ early voting lead in Florida by about 300,000 votes since early, in-person voting began and only trail in the state by 3 points five days before Election Day.
“Anyone Democrat feeling really confident right now should look at Florida’s early voting numbers. Republicans are having another huge day across the state,” NBC’s Joe Scarborough noted Tuesday.
Anyone Democrat feeling really confident right now should look at Florida’s early voting numbers. Republicans are having another huge day across the state.
— Joe Scarborough (@JoeNBC) October 27, 2020
Democrats carried an early voting lead in Florida into Election Day in 2016 as well only to have that margin erased by the GOP, resulting in Trump winning the state.
This year, the Democratic lead going into Election Day might have to be larger than usual. An overwhelming majority of Democrats have indicated they plan to or already have voted by mail or done early voting, while those voting for Trump have indicated they plan to vote on Election Day. As the Democrats lead continues to narrow ahead of Nov. 3, a wave of Republican voters could help push Trump over the top in the state.
“Democrats’ early voting across the state is actually falling well short of what they would need to win if they lose Election Day, observed the Hill’s John Pudner. “Again, the advantage goes to Republicans in Florida.”
“Forbes polling indicates that roughly half of all voters plan to vote early, with 62 percent of Democrats planning to vote early while 72 percent of Republicans plan to wait and vote on Election Day,” Pudner wrote. “If that happened and independents split evenly (last time Trump won them), then Democrats would need to win early voting at least 70 percent to 30 percent to be on pace to barely overcome a 31 percent to 69 percent disadvantage in partisan Election Day votes.”
Democrats only have a slim 41%-38% early and mail-in voting lead in Florida as of Thursday.
The early voting results in the battleground state of Florida look similar to the numbers out of Michigan and Wisconsin, which both show Republicans leading the early vote in the states despite polls showing Trump lagging. Republicans have an even larger lead in Ohio, a swing state Trump leads in most polls. Florida’s numbers could be more accurate, as the state makes voter registration data publicly available, unlike Michigan, Wisconsin, and Ohio.
Trump won all four states in 2016.
One state where Democrats are hitting their expected target is Pennsylvania, which shows Democrats leading 68%-22%. Trump narrowly won Pennsylvania in 2016, and the state is currently rated as the most likely to decide the election.