Six Establishment Republicans Face Three Threats: Redistricting, Democrats, Trump
Former President Trump’s strategy to further the “American First” agenda has included taking meetings, making endorsements, and raising money.
Intensifying Trump’s effort are state redistricting measures, where six of the 10 House Republicans who voted to impeach Trump are at risk of a redrawn district, hence in further danger of losing their seat in 2022.
Indeed, six moderate Republicans face a three-pronged threat: A primary challenge from a candidate endorsed and potentially funded by Trump, a district reengineering process, and a general election challenge in a reshaped district that may benefit the Democrat opponent.
The list of the six Republicans facing redistricting includes:
- Rep. Adam Kinzinger (R-IL)
- Rep. Anthony Gonzalez (R-OH)
- Rep. Fred Upton (R-MI)
- Rep. John Katko (R-NY)
- Rep. Peter Meijer (R-MI)
- Rep. David Valadao (R-CA)
Jason Miller, Trump’s political adviser, told Bloomberg, “Quite frankly, between their newfound unpopularity with Republican primary voters and based on what could happen with redistricting, I think a large number of these House members will be forced into retirement or looking for another job,” he said.
Miller added, “The districts of any Republicans who voted for impeachment are easy ones to cut.”
“That’s not gonna be helpful,” he said.
House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) said on February 26 that Trump had not given him a commitment to refrain from targeting House GOP incumbents in their primaries.
“I don’t have a commitment on that. I work closely with the president on working on endorsements to win seats in the House,” he said at a press conference. “We did quite well [last cycle] — you know, everybody said we’d lose 20 seats.”
Yet, McCarthy, on February 28, two days later, met with Trump, whose team released a statement after the meeting, indicating a more kumbaya approach. “They discussed many topics, number one of which was taking back the House in 2022,” it read.
INBOX: Statement from President. Trump’s Save America PAC says he and @GOPLeader McCarthy met today. “President Trump’s popularity has never been stronger than it is today, and his endorsement means more than perhaps any endorsement at any time.” (Photo came with press release) pic.twitter.com/Ar2GxaaVRD
— Ed O’Keefe (@edokeefe) January 28, 2021
McCarthy’s statement added that Trump is “committed to helping elect Republicans in the House and Senate in 2022.” It noted, “Democrats, on the other hand, have only put forward an agenda that divides us — such as impeaching a President…”
Trump’s current endorsements include Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC) for Senate, Bob Paduchik for GOP Chair of Ohio, Max Miller for Congress, Sen. John Kennedy for Senate, and Gov. Henry McMaster (R) for governor.
Republicans only need to flip five seats in 2022 to regain control of the House of Representatives. “History puts the odds in their favor since the party that doesn’t hold the White House historically gains an average of 26 seats in midterm elections for the 435-member House,” Bloomberg reported.